Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strategy. Show all posts

Monday, August 1, 2011

The 0% Factor

Why be with a hero when you can be with a zero?
         No matter what the dice calculator might say, it is impossible to have a 100% chance of hitting. You could be rolling 9*5*10 vs a 2 def and still miss. There is no sure hit.

 
        Many have lamented on missing those high odds rolls. Putting all the time, resources, and energy into planning out a big attack only to have it snatched away by the dice is devastating. Both to your morale and the game.

        After much table pounding in anger at the dice, I have developed a philosophy that I call “The 0% Factor.”

        It is impossible to have a 100% chance to hit but it is very possible, and sometimes easy, to give your opponent a 0% chance to hit. If I play a game where every attack I make is at 10% chance of hitting but my opponent has a 0% chance of hitting, I win. 

Let's see Gorghadra get out of this one.

        Creating situations that remove your opponent’s ability to do anything is game winning.

        There are many methods of giving your opponent a 0% chance to hit. One of the obvious and commonly used is screening. If you protect yourself with units and buildings, you remove your opponent’s ability to attack you.

        Another method is out-ranging. If your opponent can only strike you up close while you can make ranged attacks, keep your distance. 

        Cloak is also a valuable tool in out-ranging your opponent. If you can remove your opponent’s ability to attack you at range while retaining yours, you are using the 0% Factor.

        Let your minions do the work. Question: if two units get crushed by a rampaging monster, which one hits the unit reserves first? Answer: who cares?  Let your units get stomped, rampaged, exploded, and flung around…if they are dishing out the damage to the opposing monster with your monster safe, that’s using the 0% Factor.

        You can also utilize the 0% Factor by making your opponent’s attack look so un-enticing they don’t even want to preform it. In other words, by positioning your monster and units you can turn your opponent’s low-percentage attack into a 0%. An attack not made is a missed attack. When using this tactic don’t be afraid to use the meta-mind game. Play your opponent as well as the board. Talk to him/her, let ‘em know that it is a risky attack or mention your retaliatory attack possibilities. Anything to dissuade the attack. Or, as a tactic, try to talk an opponent into a high-risk with retaliatory possibility attack. Although that kind of meta-mind gaming tactics will be saved for another blog.

        Of course you won’t be able to stop your opponent from attacking throughout a whole game. Some attacks will squeak through, but, limiting the quantity and quality of those attacks will assure you a win. If you relegate your opponent to making only 1 damage attacks at 90% while you are able to make 2 damage attacks at 85%, you have the advantage.

        So, quit blaming the dice on missing those high percentage rolls and start forcing your opponent into the 0% Factor.

May all your power ups succeed and all your strikes be super! 
Good Luck!

The Luck Advantage & Handicap

Are we all about to get lucky or handicapped?
          I’m big on reviewing matches. I log every match I play on vassal, and many that I happen to catch as a spectator. I then review the log, make notes, tally and graph the damage curve, a-die & p-die gain/usage, and hit percentages. Seeing a match broken down in this manner helps me recognize the flow of a game.



        One calculation that has peaked my interest has been what I call the “Luck Advantage/Handicap.” I often consider luck to be when opportunity meets preparation, but in a die rolling game like Monsterpocalypse, I consider luck the numerical difference between the percentage of hitting and actually hitting or missing. For instance, if I am attempting to body slam my opponent’s 6 Def monster by rolling 4 a-dice, 3 b-dice, and 2 p-dice, I have a 78.58% chance to hit. Given that a hit is 100%, and I do hit, I have gained the difference between my prospective hit and actual hit as Luck, which would be 21.42%. The dice have granted me 21.42% of the hit for free.  Conversely, if I miss and a miss equaling 0%, I would have a 78.58% luck handicap. That is; the dice have turned that 78.58% into a 0%.

        This calculation of luck is not perfect. Attacks that hit multiple targets, such as Explosion, Multi-shot, and Rampage, do throw the percentages off a bit. As do multi-roll abilities such as Lightning Attack and Marker. This luck calculation is just a quick and easy way to get an estimate of your vs your opponent’s dice luck advantage.

        Now having high luck doesn’t guarantee a win. Luck could grant you over 50% on each roll you make but if you are only dealing 1 damage on each attack while your opponent is dealing 3 with luck only granting him 5%, you will still lose. So do not look at this luck calculation as being the decider of victors. It is just another tool to consider when making a plan of attack.

Here is an example of a Luck Advantage/Handicap calculation:

Dice v Def
Hit %
Hit (100) / Miss (0)
+/-
2*6 v 4
92.8
0
-92.78
3*0 v 1
87.5
100
12.5
6*2*1 v 4
93.6
100
6.39
3*9 v 7
89.3
100
10.66
7*2 v 4
90.5
0
-90.54
3*8 v 7
82.3
100
17.75
3*0 v 1
87.5
100
12.5
2*3 v 3
79.5
100
20.55
1*3*6 v 3
100
100
0.02
1*3*6 v 7
91.3
100
8.72
2*3 v 4
56.9
100
43.07
3*0 v 1
87.5
100
12.5
6*3*3 v 7
89.8
100
10.25
3*4 v 3
94
100
5.99
3*0 v 1
87.5
100
12.5
6*3*3 v 2
100
100
0.01
6*3*3 v 7
89.8
100
10.25
4*6 v 7
61.1
0
-61.12
Total


-60.78
 
        This player had a -60.78% handicap. The dice took 60.78 points of hit percentage away throughout the match.

Here is another example:

Dice v Def
Hit %
Hit (100) / Miss (0)
+/-
3*4 v 3
94
100
5.99
3*3*2 v 6
69
100
31.01
4*3*5 v 6
92.3
100
7.71
2*5 v 2
99
100
1.01
2*5 v 2
99
100
1.01
2*5 v 4
85.9
100
14.07
2*4*4 v 5
98.2
100
1.85
3*0 v 1
87.5
100
12.5
3*3*4 v 5
97.7
100
2.35
3*4 v 4
83.3
100
16.66
3*4 v 4
83.3
100
16.66
3*4 v 3
94
100
5.99
3*3*3 v 6
83.9
100
16.09
4*3*8 v 5
99.99
100
0.01
3*6 v 5
88.3
100
11.72
4*4*1 v 5
88.5
100
11.54
4*4 v 5
76.5
100
23.51
Total


179.7

          This player had a 179.70% advantage. The dice granted this player 179.70 points of hit percentage throughout the match.

Note that samples are taken after every roll, including power ups.
        Game assessment is very important to winning. A player that knows they are up against the ropes and is able to plan according will have a step up on his competition who doesn’t know they are doing well. Being able to get an estimate of how the dice have been treating you will give you that knowledge.

May all your power ups succeed and all your strikes be super! 
Good Luck!

Anatomy of a Turn



        Every turn in Monsterpocalypse has a structure to it. For monster activations there is a Power Phase, Hyper Phase, Advancement Phase, Attack Phase and a Push Phase. For unit activations there is a Spawn Phase, Advancement Phase, Attack Phase, and Push Phase. These phases are part of the rules and you must follow them.  

        However, there is another way to segment your turn so that you maximize your effectiveness.  By breaking your turn up into the following seven phases, you will achieve far greater efficiency with your game play:  
 1. Assess The Situation, 2. Set Objectives & Goals, 3. Prioritize Objectives & Goals, 4. Plan Your Turn, 5. Assess Retaliation, 6. Reassess Your Plan, 7. Implement Your Plan

Step 1: Assess The Situation
        Before doing anything in your turn you have to find out your current situation. If you are behind in the damage race or low on power dice you may have a very different set of objectives and goals than if you were ahead. Here is a list of possible questions you should ask yourself when assessing the situation:

  • How many power dice do you have compared to your opponent?
  • Are you ahead or behind in the damage race?
  • What is your current on-board unit strength?
  • How does your power base look?
  • Have you been operating at a luck advantage or handicap?  (See: Luck)
  • What type of activation can your opponent do next?
  • Can you preform a back-to-back monster activation?

Step 2: Set Objectives & Goals
        At any particular time there are numerous combination of moves, actions, and attacks a player can perform, however only a few will be beneficial. It is important to know what your objectives and goals are in a given turn.

        There is a distinction between objectives and goals.  An objective is something that doesn’t require a die roll, such as securing a power base, disrupting your opponent’s power base, setting up a screen, or moving your monster into a screened position. If you don’t have to rely on a die roll to achieve a task, it is an objective. 

        A goal is anything that requires a die roll, ie an attack, Pathfinder, or power up. Objectives and goals go hand in hand. It is an objective to get a unit into position to make an attack, it is a goal to hit that attack.



        In this example it is Krakenoctus’ unit turn. Here are the list of possible objectives & goals:
        Objective: Secure Power Base
        Objective: Disrupt Opposing Power Base
        Goal: Destroy Opposing Units
        Goal: Damage Robo Kondo
        Objective: Screen Krakenoctus

Step 3: Prioritize Your Objectives & Goals
        Not all objectives and goals are created equal. If your opponent is going to activate his monster next and your monster is exposed to a form killing power attack, screening will probably be of higher priority than destroying a pesky unit that is disrupting your power base. However, this may not always be the case. Sometimes you have to consider your monster form a lost cause and prepare yourself to preform a big retaliatory attack. So destroying that pesky power base disrupting unit may be of higher priority.

        When setting the priority of your goals it is important to weigh the chance to hit with the importance of that goal. Goals that have a high chance to hit a unit may have a lower priority than those that have a low chance to hit a monster.

Here is how the list of Objectives and Goals could be prioritized from the above example:
        1. Objective: Screen Krakenoctus
        2. Goal: Damage Robo Kondo
        3. Goal: Destroy Opposing Units
        4. Objective: Disrupt Opposing Power Base
        5. Objective: Secure Power Base

Step 4: Plan Your Turn
        This step is where you figure out how you will conduct your turn. What units will you spawn? Where will you spawn them? Where will they move? Who will attack? Do you power up? How many steps will your monster need to make? What action will you preform? How many dice will you use for everything?

        It is important to plan out your turn in full before you spend any dice. You do not want to spawn your units, move them, then realize that not all of your units are in range to achieve the goal.

        It is helpful to lay your action dice out on the board to figure out how they will be spent. Spawning a 2 cost unit at the O-14 spawn point, put 2 action dice there. Moving a  unit to N-12, put an action die there. Planning to attack, lay out the dice you plan to use.
Below is a unit work sheet. It helps when calculating what exactly you can do with your units.




In the example shown above, Krakenoctus’ player plans to do the following:

Spawn:
Hunter Kor’al @ O-14
Nautilus Blaster @ P-15
Nullifer Pod @ J-14

Move:
Grunt Vanguard @ N-14 to N-8
Spiral Relay @ O-11 to P-9
Spadefin Skimmer @ G-14 to G-9
Tanker Truck @ B-13 to D-9

Attack:
Combined blast: Hunter Kor’al (Leader) & Nautilus Blaster using 2 Action dice and 3 Boost dice versus Robo Kondo’s now 3 defense with a 79.45% chance to hit. If the attack is successful, Power Gorge triggers giving a Power die.

Here is the Vassal log of the plan in action:

Step 5: Assess Retaliation
        After you have worked out what you plan to do, work out what your opponent will do in retaliation. 
        Whenever anyone asks me for advice on how to play Monsterpocalypse, the first thing I tell them is to always play two games at the same time; your game and your opponent’s game. Knowing what your opponent can and will do gives you a big advantage.

Step 6: Reassess Your Plan
        After you have assessed your opponent’s retaliation to your turn, go back and reassess your plan, making tweaks to optimize it.

        During step 6, it is a good idea to step back for a moment, take a breath, and look at your plan again. See if there is anything better you can do. Can you place units a little differently to make a better hit percentage, or screen more efficiently? Can you use your abilities in a different manner that gives a slight advantage over your original plan.

        In the Krakenoctus vs Robo Kondo example, it is possible to increase the chance to hit while still screening Krakenoctus by moving units a little differently and utilizing some abilities.

Spawn:
Hunter Kor’al @ O-14
Nautilus Blaster @ P-15
Nullifer Pod @ J-14

Move:
Spadefin Skimmer @ G-14 to G-9
Hunter Kor’al @ 0-14 to N-12

Attack:
Combined blast: Hunter Kor’al (Leader),  Nautilus Blaster and Grunt Vanguard using 3 Action dice and 4 Boost dice versus Robo Kondo’s now 3 defense with a 94.01% chance to hit. If the hit is successful, Power Gorge triggers giving a Power die, Syncronized Move triggers allowing the Grunt Vanguard to move to N-8.

Action:
Sprint Spiral Relay to P-9
This reassessed plan requires the attack to hit in order to screen, sort of an all-or-nothing plan, but it increases the chance to hit by 14.56%.



Here is the Vassal log of the reassessed plan in action:

Step 7: Implement Your Plan
        After all the assessing and planning, here is where you actually put your plan into action. Spawn your units, move your figures, roll your dice. The only surprises that should come here are from the die rolls.


Epilogue:
        After you get use to following these seven steps there are a few more things you can do to play more competitively:

  •         Either don’t indicate your plan or indicate a false plan. If your opponent can see what you are planning by looking at how you place your action dice on the map, or which units you set aside to spawn, he/she can start to plan out their turn in advance, leaving them more time to complete these 7 steps. If you surprise your opponent at step 7 with your plan, your opponent will have less opportunity to implement an effective retaliation. This is especially effective in timed-turn matches.
  •         When playing in a time-turn match, it is important to come up with a back-up plan first. Something quick and easy to fulfill some basic objectives and goals. It may not be optimal but if you are running out of time before you have completed all 7 steps, go with your backup plan. The back-up plan is better than being caught with your pants down when time is up.
  •          After you see your opponent’s monster, force and city, and determine the map, but before you place the first building, develop a loose strategy for defeating your opponent. If your strategy consists of power dice denial, then your objectives and goals each turn may change. If you are facing a non-healing monster, dealing monster damage may have a higher priority than destroying units or disrupting a power base.


May all your power ups succeed and all your strikes be super!
Good luck!

I would like to thank Nathan Camp aka 4GJ! on Vassal for helping me with this article. Your determination and persistence at becoming a better player is truly inspiring.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

The Reasons for Losing



            We’ve all lost a game. Whether it be because you didn’t move to the right spot, you didn’t see a figure had a certain ability, or the dice just didn’t come through, you lost for one reason or another. 

            In this article I’ll examine the reasons for losing. There aren’t many really. Just three big reasons:

1. You didn’t know something.
2. Dice.
3. You didn’t prepare.

            The first reason is fairly self-explanatory. You forgot about that red hoist, you didn’t see the Robo Brontox on a power zone, you didn’t realize Alpha Grindix had power drain, you didn’t know how a rule worked. Whatever it is you didn’t know, in some small part, it cost you the game. How do you avoid this reason for losing? Become familiar with everything Monsterpocalypse. Get to know all of the figures, read the wiki, read the rulebook, stay tuned-in to the rules updates, ask questions, watch other players play. The more you know the game, the more you won’t forget or overlook things and the more you won’t lose.

            Sadly there is sometimes no direct way to prevent the second reason for losing.  Sometimes dice will just not roll in your favor. You can know everything there is to know about Monsterpocalypse, have the perfect force/monster, and an immaculate plan of attack but the dice can still roll all misses for you and all hits for your opponent. You lose.

            But really now…what are the odds? If you don’t forget or overlook anything, have a decent understanding of how many dice to roll in an attack to hit, and come into a match with a good plan of attack with contingencies, the odds of the dice doing you in over the whole game are remote. More remote than most people like to admit, hence the blaming of dice. But really, unless Lady Luck not only walked out on you but slashed your tires, kicked your dog, and slapped your grandma, don’t blame her for making you lose. The odds of the dice making you lose when you have done everything else right is very very VERY slim. So that brings us to the biggest reason for losing, not being prepared.



            Being prepared is a multifaceted part of not losing. Being prepared isn’t just about creating a usable force, city, and map for your monster, it is about identifying how everything works together to defeat the particular opponent you are facing. If you successfully prepare to face your opponent, the problem with dice not rolling in your favor is highly mitigated. You can roll several missed power ups or attacks in a match and still win if you are prepared for those rolls to miss. Alternatively, if you are prepared, you will have an infrastructure created in the match that can produce enough dice for you to use in an attack to make the chance of you missing so slim it is virtually non-existent. You’ll have more units on the board to make combined attacks, more attack options, more options to attack without a retaliation and so on. 

         Monsterpocalypse isn’t a game about rolling better than your opponent, it is a game about having more and better options than your opponent. 

         If you are prepared to face your particular opponent and can create a plan of attack that maximizes your options and minimizes your opponents, you will have a much greater chance of NOT losing, even if the dice roll bad. You could even have a -160 luck handicap and your opponent could have a +200 luck advantage and still NOT lose. (See: Luck)

            Of course, sometimes you just have a bad match-up and it’ll be an uphill battle no matter how perfect your plan is or how much you’ve prepared. You could have an all blasting force and monster and your opponent is running Ultra Mantacon. You could have a non-healing all brawling force and monster and be facing Ulgoth. There will always be bad match-ups. Sadly in those matches you may have to rely a little more on the dice to be in your favor than you would like, but if you make a good plan of attack and come prepared you won’t have to let Lady Luck do all the heavy lifting. She hates to carry players along.

            So, if you don’t want to lose, get to know the game, be prepared, and don’t let yourself be put into a position to blame the dice. If you do all of that and still lose, the most important thing you can do is examine what happened so in the future you can avoid that reason for losing.

May all your power ups succeed and all your strikes be super! 
Good Luck!