The Luck Advantage & Handicap

Are we all about to get lucky or handicapped?

          I’m big on reviewing matches. I log every match I play on vassal, and many that I happen to catch as a spectator. I then review the log, make notes, tally and graph the damage curve, a-die & p-die gain/usage, and hit percentages. Seeing a match broken down in this manner helps me recognize the flow of a game.

        One calculation that has peaked my interest has been what I call the “Luck Advantage/Handicap.” I often consider luck to be when opportunity meets preparation, but in a die rolling game like Monsterpocalypse, I consider luck the numerical difference between the percentage of hitting and actually hitting or missing. For instance, if I am attempting to body slam my opponent’s 6 Def monster by rolling 4 a-dice, 3 b-dice, and 2 p-dice, I have a 78.58% chance to hit. Given that a hit is 100%, and I do hit, I have gained the difference between my prospective hit and actual hit as Luck, which would be 21.42%. The dice have granted me 21.42% of the hit for free.  Conversely, if I miss and a miss equaling 0%, I would have a 78.58% luck handicap. That is; the dice have turned that 78.58% into a 0%.

        This calculation of luck is not perfect. Attacks that hit multiple targets, such as Explosion, Multi-shot, and Rampage, do throw the percentages off a bit. As do multi-roll abilities such as Lightning Attack and Marker. This luck calculation is just a quick and easy way to get an estimate of your vs your opponent’s dice luck advantage.

        Now having high luck doesn’t guarantee a win. Luck could grant you over 50% on each roll you make but if you are only dealing 1 damage on each attack while your opponent is dealing 3 with luck only granting him 5%, you will still lose. So do not look at this luck calculation as being the decider of victors. It is just another tool to consider when making a plan of attack.

Here is an example of a Luck Advantage/Handicap calculation:

Dice v Def	Hit %	Hit (100) / Miss (0)	+/-
2*6 v 4	92.8	0	-92.78
3*0 v 1	87.5	100	12.5
6*2*1 v 4	93.6	100	6.39
3*9 v 7	89.3	100	10.66
7*2 v 4	90.5	0	-90.54
3*8 v 7	82.3	100	17.75
3*0 v 1	87.5	100	12.5
2*3 v 3	79.5	100	20.55
1*3*6 v 3	100	100	0.02
1*3*6 v 7	91.3	100	8.72
2*3 v 4	56.9	100	43.07
3*0 v 1	87.5	100	12.5
6*3*3 v 7	89.8	100	10.25
3*4 v 3	94	100	5.99
3*0 v 1	87.5	100	12.5
6*3*3 v 2	100	100	0.01
6*3*3 v 7	89.8	100	10.25
4*6 v 7	61.1	0	-61.12
Total			-60.78

 

        This player had a -60.78% handicap. The dice took 60.78 points of hit percentage away throughout the match.

Here is another example:

Dice v Def	Hit %	Hit (100) / Miss (0)	+/-
3*4 v 3	94	100	5.99
3*3*2 v 6	69	100	31.01
4*3*5 v 6	92.3	100	7.71
2*5 v 2	99	100	1.01
2*5 v 2	99	100	1.01
2*5 v 4	85.9	100	14.07
2*4*4 v 5	98.2	100	1.85
3*0 v 1	87.5	100	12.5
3*3*4 v 5	97.7	100	2.35
3*4 v 4	83.3	100	16.66
3*4 v 4	83.3	100	16.66
3*4 v 3	94	100	5.99
3*3*3 v 6	83.9	100	16.09
4*3*8 v 5	99.99	100	0.01
3*6 v 5	88.3	100	11.72
4*4*1 v 5	88.5	100	11.54
4*4 v 5	76.5	100	23.51
Total			179.7

          This player had a 179.70% advantage. The dice granted this player 179.70 points of hit percentage throughout the match.

Note that samples are taken after every roll, including power ups.

        Game assessment is very important to winning. A player that knows they are up against the ropes and is able to plan according will have a step up on his competition who doesn’t know they are doing well. Being able to get an estimate of how the dice have been treating you will give you that knowledge.

May all your power ups succeed and all your strikes be super! 

Good Luck!